The National Retail Federation Tuesday released its holiday forecast, predicting a 1 percent drop in holiday sales from 2008. NRF predicted a $437.6 billion figure for the holidays.
NRF reached the conclusion because while signs of a recovery have begun to emerge, "continued consumer uncertainty" over jobs and home values will adversely affect spending. The group also said that electronics, among other categories, may experience deflation.
“The expectation of another challenging holiday season does not come as news to retailers, who have been experiencing a pullback in consumer spending for over a year,” NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin said as part of the announcement.
“To compensate, retailers’ focus on the holiday season has been razor-sharp with companies cutting back as much as possible on operating costs in order to pass along aggressive savings and promotions to customers.”
The decline was not as severe as last year’s 3.4 percent drop, nor NRF’s predicted 3 percent overall drop in sales for the year.