Dealer Data: Forecasting Holiday Sales

Dealer Data: Forecasting Holiday Sales


You probably already have a good idea of how your holiday sales will shape up. Now is the time, however, to fine-tune those forecasts as a way to maximize sales, sharpen your merchandising strategy and help hungry shoppers quickly find what they want. Here’s a little help courtesy of CEA’s 14th Annual Holiday Sales and Forecast report.

Slowing Job Market: 1.3 million jobs added in 2007, compared to three million in 2006.

Average Price Growth for CE products is expected to hit $246, up 5% from $235 in 2006, a 17 percent increase from 2005.

Gifts Adults Want:

Computers hit #1, up from #4

Peace and Happiness remained at #2, with Big-screen TVs coming in at #4, up from #11.

Top CE Gifts Adults Want (in order of preference):

Portable MP3 Player, Notebook PC, Video Game System, Digital Camera, Any Type of TV, DVD Player, Camcorder.

What Kids Want, according to adults: Video Games moved a notch to #1,while MP3 players remained at #5.

What Kids Really Want, according to kids: MP3 Player, Video Games, Computer, Cell Phone.


25 percent of adults expect to spend more on holiday gifts this year, while about 28 percent expect to spend less (both numbers are about equal to last year’s)

Respondents expect to spend an average of $882 on gifts, a 10 percent increase over last years $804.

Spending on CE gifts will amount to 22 percent of all gifts, or $22.1 billion, down from 24 percent last year.

Holiday gifting is 46 percent of total Q4 CE spending.

51 percent will buy Accessories, down from 54 percent.

40 percent will buy Video, down from 56 percent.

43 percent will buy Communications/Mobile, down from 53 percent.

51 percent will buy PC Games, down from 57 percent.

44 percent will buy audio, down from 53 percent.

Consumers Likely To Buy a CE Gift: 14 percent, down from 17 percent last year.

Average Number of CE Gifts Per Buyer: 9, up from 8.8 in 2006, 7.6 in 2005, 6.8 in 2004 and 7.2 in 2003.